Tendencies # 99 - Monday 9 July 2007

An Event and a Regional Tendency

The Iraqi event heavily pressurizes inside the US in a way that does not serve President Bush’s interest due to the death toll rise and the expanding operations of Iraqi resistance. This warns of dramatic changes that may surprise the US due to increasing calls to oust Vice-president Dick Cheney, and the rising voice of Republican Senators and Congress members who moved from supporting Bush and his Iraq war to the edge of calling for ousting him, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi proposed a withdrawal plan within four months. Western analysts anticipate that this plan will change at the end of next September into a draft law that reduces the authorities of the president in matters of war like what happened to former president Richard Nixon in the seventies concerning Vietnam’s war.
This topic and its interactions and dimensions attracts the attention of the world while some analysts think that no new or serious calculations appeared on the area’s arena or on the front of the forces and sides which linked their destiny with pledging on the US adventure. These analysts anticipate dramatic events that will destabilize the balance of powers if the US is forced to leave suddenly the Iraqi quagmire as it happened in Vietnam 30 years ago.

An Event and a Lebanese Tendency

While anticipation dominates the Lebanese arena before holding Paris’s dialogue forum, and despite the low ceiling of expectations on, the French endeavors concentrate on pushing participants in this meeting to agree on a joint intentions declaration between the loyal and the opposition.
Some analysts in Beirut believe that the Arab and Iranian move aims at supporting the French efforts despite the continuity of concern and doubts in the uselessness of mediations in the aftermath of the US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman statements, which were considered as a sign of escalation and a prevention of compromises. What doubled this concern is the loud tone of Representative Walid Jumblatt in his defense of the US policy in Lebanon and his suspicious words about the fall of all the red lines in Lebanon. This was considered as a dangerous escalation by the public opinion and US political and press circles.
The opposition stressed its openness on the station of the new dialogue, sending, at the same time, political messages on various levels about its holding of many cards and that it will identify the time of using them in the light of Paris’ meeting’s result and the mission of Arab league secretary general, who may visit Beirut after his meetings in Riyadh and Damascus.

Arab Press

German Press Agency said the ousted Palestinian government will reveal documents that indict the Palestinian authority’s symbols and personalities and prove their involvement in corruption and stealing the people’s money. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas said in an interview with the Egyptian paper Al-Ahram that deploying international forces in Gaza can only happen through coordination with Egypt
The Emirate paper Al-Khaleej quoted Israeli sources as saying that Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad held a secret meeting with Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak, while the office of the Israeli foreign minister announced that Tzipi Levni held a meeting with Fayyad.
The same paper said in its editorial that Israeli settlement policy continues and Israel issues laws to confiscate and seize Palestinian lands. United Press International published a report prepared by Michael O’Hanlon from Brookings institution and Edward Joseph, the visiting professor at the same institute, which proposed diving Iraq into three entities or more as an alternative plan to the plans of restoring stability, the US forces’ withdrawal, and containing the civil war.
This should be accompanied, according to the report, by measures like keeping 150 thousand US soldiers in Iraq, demarcating the borders of the Iraqi areas, and finding a concept for sharing the oil revenues, in addition to other issues.

Lebanese Papers

Lebanese press quoted Arab League secretary general Amr Moussa as saying that there is a possibility for understanding between Lebanese sides, while Agence France Presse said Moussa received Saudi support in his Lebanese mission.
The press quoted spokesperson for Iranian foreign ministry as saying that Iran supports all the efforts that aim at solving the crisis in Lebanon.
The Press added that the Maronite Patriarchs’ recent statement raised debate in Lebanon and some sides criticized the Lebanese sides’ reaction to it.
Representative Walid Jumblatt said during his meeting with minister of defense Michel Murr that all the red lines in Lebanon fell down.
Head of Hezbollah representatives’ bloc Mohamed Raad said the ruling team should reconsider their foreign calculations because the crisis reached the bottleneck.
Al-Akhbar said new data enhance investigation into the assassination of Representative Pierre Gemayel.
As-Safir said the Syrian customs handed the car of Gemayel’s killers to Lebanese authorities.
An-Nahar said platforms dialogue appeared in the anniversary of former president Elias Hrawi’s departure.

International Press

The US paper The New Yorker called for pulling out the US soldiers from Iraq as quickly as possible, pointing out the Bush’s attempt to achieve stability in this country is a "lost case".
Agence France Presse quoted the Washington Post paper as saying that an introductory report will be submitted this week to the Congress the denounces the current Iraqi government’s inability to achieve the goals set by Bush’s administration.
Moscow Times paper quoted president Vladimir Putin as saying that since the departure of Mahatma Gandhi, there is no on to talk to.
Korea Policy Review said stopping North Korea’s nuclear program was the main foreign priority for many analysts in North America, Europe and Asia.
The US papers quoted President George Bush as saying that the US intends to sign a new strategic agreement with Israel that lasts for ten years to guarantee its security and superiority.
Arab diplomatic sources that follow-up the Pakistani affairs said the Pakistani government gave up its previous policy which was based on supporting extremists, and Western sources consider this as necessary to prevent Pakistan from falling into the hands of fundamentalists.
United Press International said the four Iranian diplomats who were abducted in Lebanon in 1982 are still alive, pointing out that Iran holds Israel responsible for this crime.
Reuters Agency said a fatwa issued by a Saudi cleric raised fears from the eruption of violence in Saudi Arabia. The Fatwa says liberals are not real Muslims.

Arab Satellite Stations’ Interviews

Al-Jazeera
Program: A Special Interview
Syrian information minister Mohsen Bilal stressed Syria’s clinging to just and comprehensive peace that guarantees the restoration of the occupied Golan Heights, in addition to Shebaa farms, Kafr Shuba hills, and establishing an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, and the refugees’ right to return to their homeland.

Television Stations’ News in Lebanon

The NTV said the anniversary of the former president Elias Hrawi’s departure interrupted political silence, and broke the sanctity of tightened security measures.
The NBN said house speaker Nabih Berri launched a number of political titles by celebrating the anniversary of president Hrawi’s departure, but he did not concentrate on the details of current condition.
The LBC said Lebanon enters a new stage in the shadow of the current Arab and foreign initiatives that may require difficult and long stages to reach the end.
The Future TV said Amr Moussa may visit Beirut during his recent tour in the area.