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Opinion-editorials decyphered - 15 January 2006
Iran in sight
Decyphering
Recent statements by Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadineyad triggered others by the western media asking for sanctions against Iran, which could constitute the prelude of a military attack. The arguments used include legitimate criticism of the Iranian President’s statements, distortion of the situation in that country, worsening of the threat that would pose Tehran’s civil nuclear program as well as traditional propaganda especially related to the alleged ties between Iran and Al Qaeda.
Frequently, views demanding sanctions or even military action against Iran are made in the name of moral principles, but they often ignore international law. If we listen to what many analysts have to say, we will see that President Ahmadineyad’s recent statements justify the adoption of severe sanctions against Iran, and even the launching a war. This approach is based on a vision of international relations in which the most powerful countries can, at their own will, attack any country, not only in legitimate defence and not even only if they represent a threat, but also taking into account declarations and the ideology of the leaders of those target-countries. And this approach is easily spreading as the ruling media, whose articles and reports are mainly based on the opinion of western military leaders, offer an aseptic and soothing image of war.
However, we can not launch an slaughtering attack that will leave thousands of victims only based on a declaration, no matter how unfortunate it might be.
Anyway, neo-conservative propagandists usually attack Iran using the Iranian President’s negatory statements as their arguments.
Michael Rubin, former advisor to Donald Rumsfeld and also expert at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), welcomes Ahmadineyad’s declarations in the Slovakian journal Tyzden. For him, the Iranian president has finally revealed the nature of the Iranian regime and the Europeans have no choice than confronting him. The AEI expert believes that, in essence, the Islamic Republic of Iran is a regime that seeks the destruction of Israel and nothing could change that. The Iranian President’s most recent statements allowed the Europeans to understand it. Thus, without recommending any solutions, he makes a call in favour of a change of regime in Iran.
Kenneth R. Timmerman, Vice-president of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran, uses the psychiatric condition of the adversary as an argument in the Daily Star. Based on a series of groundless statements and rumours whose authors can not be identified, he affirms that Mahmud Ahmadineyad is a messianic and millennialist religious fanatic who believes in the end of the world and the return of Imam Mehdi, a mythical figure of the Shiites. Taking into account this postulate and taking for granted Iran’s will to acquire the nuclear weapon, he predicts the worst in the event this kind of weapon falls in the hands of a mad man. He also believes that everything possible has to be done to prevent these “zealots” from having the bomb. Timmerman does not specify which means should be used either.
The western mainstream media share a common opinion: Iran is a threat, it is ready to acquire weapons of mass destruction, it supports terrorism and it is led by a group of fanatics who can adopt irrational measures (this argument frequently allows hiding the irrationality of this line of argument). We are clearly seeing the same pattern of propaganda used against Iraq.
Nonetheless, in the case of Iran, accusing the Islamic Republic does not necessarily leads to a call in favour of military action. It seems that, among the Atlantist elites, there is no consensus about a land invasion against Iran, and not even about air attacks. But there are some ambiguous points.
This is the case o article Publisher in Los Angeles Times by Bill Frist, Senator for Tennessee and leader of the Republic majority in the US Senate. The author shows concern for the nuclear threat that Iran poses to Israel, Europe and US troops stationed in the Middle East. Taking for granted Iran’s aggressive intentions and considering that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not condemned that country only because it fears that Tehran may abandon the Treaty of Non Proliferation, he calls for an international embargo against Iran. However, Senator Frist can not ignore that the United States will never obtain a consensus on this issue. China, Russia and India would neither respect nor support such an action. So, it is hard to understand the use of such a recommendation except to affirm later that non-military proposals were made before launching a war.
The traditional “messengers of America” also spread this image of Iran in France.
Media “philosopher” and editorialist of the French conservative weekly Le Point, Bernard Henri Lévy, repeats (and supports) all analyses made by his neo-conservative colleague David Brooks (who works for the New York Times and the Weekly Standard). The author affirms that Iran is about to have the atomic weapon and that it will use it against Israel before using it against “America” and the “West”. He also accuses the Islamic Republic of having ties with Al Qaeda. As it seems very difficult to resort to the military option (and, according to the tone of the text, only because of that), Bernard Henri Lévy suggests the use of international pressures in the commercial and diplomatic fields as well as the support of movements that could overthrow the Iranian theocratic system. While he regrets the US involvement in a conflict in Iraq, currently described as absurd, but one that he once defended, he asks Europe to stop any negotiation with Tehran and to act aggressively.
The French journal Le Figaro, for its part, gives the floor to commentators of Iranian origin.
Mdjamchid Assadi, a marketing professor and advisor to several companies, makes an analysis in which he uses the traditional Atlantist speech about Iran. He fears that diplomatic action may no longer be enough to solve the nuclear crisis and describes as “counterproductive” any military or even nuclear solution. Thus, he calls for a change of regime and for internal subversion actions.
Far from these simplistic visions, Daryush Shayegan describes his country as an incredibly complex state, characterized by deep archaisms but also by an endogenous cultural revolution. This article is a response to all those who believe that only an action from abroad can transform the country, although it does not state it explicitly. But this point of view is only an isolated example.
In the website AntiWar.com, Dr. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, professor at the Center of International Studies of the University of Cambridge and member of the board of directors of the Tharwa Project, describes the way the propaganda model used by the neo-conservatives against Iran works. The author recalls that the neo-conservative program includes the overthrow of six or seven regimes in the Middle East and the actions of Iran have not had any influence on that goal. Thus, whatever the Islamic Republic does will be criticized to portray Iran’s most threatening possible image and to convince the world public opinion that it should be attacked. In order to back his words, the author cites a series of writers that the readers of our section Articles and Analysis know very well and who are experts in undermining the image of countries that are in the neo-conservatives’ sight. This propaganda campaign and the formula of marketing of shock allow them to win the consent of public opinion. The author concludes that war is a characteristic inherent to neo-conservatism and that the struggle against it involves denouncing its propaganda.
This is a point of view that we would have endorsed but that, unfortunately, does not have access to the mainstream media.
Voltaire Network
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15 January 2006
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Paris (France)
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Authors and Sources of Op-Eds Decyphered
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“Iran means what It says”
Author
Michael Rubin
Source
Tyzden (Slovakia)
Reference ”Iran Means What It Says”, by Michael Rubin, Tyzden, January 2, 2006.
Summary Ahmadinejad’s anti-Semitic statements caused discontent in Europe – and this is shocking since such statements are not new. Four years ago, President Rafsanjani had made a similar remark during a Friday’s sermon. His speech should have persuaded then anybody to believe that the Islamist Republic is inconsistent with the West values. Rafsanjani said: ‘If the Islamist world gets some day equipped with the same weapons Israel owns today, then the imperialist strategy will get stuck as only one atomic bomb will be enough inside Israel’s territory to destroy everything… such possibility is not unlikely’. US- and European-analysts hastened to say this was only a defensive attitude, but Iranian politicians on their side had understood perfectly all right - it was a clear threat of using the nuke tacitly, offensively.
As ever, Iran’s political and religious leaders have systematically urged their people to wipe out Israel. Up to Ahmadinejad himself, those same Iranian politicians have managed to hoodwink Europe or make it take one thing for another. For 20 years now, Europe has avoided to face the situation for fear of any confrontation and in the name of protecting its interests, closing its eyes to terror and to the several violations of Human Rights. Europe’s diplomatic goal is to allow Iran to gain time, basically in the nuclear subject.
But today it is clear that the European policy regarding Iran has failed for two reasons. First, the Iranian regime nuclear development is motivated by internal considerations and not by national defence, and diplomacy has no access at all to internal affairs. Discreet studies, talks and probes of the Iranian opinion show that 80% of the population expects nothing any longer from the current regime and hopes for a radical change. The situation is similar to that of the USSR in the days of Mihail Gorbachev’s government – people were not satisfied with the Glasnost and simply wanted to get rid of the communist domain. Only 10% supports Jatami’s reforms – the equivalent of Mijail Gorbachev’s followers then. The rest hold on to Ahmadinejad’s radical rhetoric, and as the inflexible Stalinists of those days, will always oppose any reform.
The second reason of the European failure is the Guardians of the Revolution. Withdrawn in themselves and in their fiercely reactionary positions, such guardians are the elite of the Islamist regime. They make up the ideological and xenophobic core of the group that owns the Iranian nuclear and ballistic program. Ahmadinejad’s denials and his threats to ‘wipe Israel off the map’ are deep-rooted in their ideology. The apocalyptic allusions recently formulated by Ahmadinejad, who thinks to be able to speed up the advent of the hidden Imam – a Shiite messianic figure – through a period of martial purification, should disturb the Europeans. Diplomatically speaking, all parties seem to be honest in their goals, but Ahmadinejad misses no chance to reassert his warlike over his peaceful posture.
Political problems can be settled through diplomacy but diplomacy cannot attack the ideological foundations of a hostile regime. Pol Pot could not be diverted away from its genocide xenophobia. Gamal Abdul Nasser could have never abandoned the Arab nationalism. Saddam has not renounced anything, even after his downfall. The Iranian leadership is not different. No matter how hard diplomacy might strive, it will never talk Iran’s religious leadership into forsaking the beliefs and principles it has of its particular theological vision. Iran’s leadership is as dangerous as its potential arsenal. Fortunately today, the openness of Ahmadinejad’s statements forces the European politicians to see the Islamist Republic as it is and not as they would like it to be.

“Is Iran’s Ahmadinejad a Messianic Medium?”
Author
Kenneth R. Timmerman

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Former official of the Foreign Relations Commission of the U.S. House of Representatives, Kenneth R. Timmerman is a journalist and writer. Author of Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran. Many times he participated outstandingly in the Research Commission hearings held in the United States, systematically alleging that the U.S. underestimated the military threats surrounding it. He is a member of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran.
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Source
Daily Star (Lebanon)
Reference ”Is Iran’s Ahmadinejad a messianic medium?”, by Kenneth R. Timmerman, Daily Star, December 30, 2005.
Summary At a time when negotiations with Iran are again in decline, it becomes essential to fully understand Mahmud Ahmadinejad.
After his address to the UN General Assembly, he said that day had been lit up by a divine light and that world leaders had had to listen to the Islamic Republic’s message. Such interpretation could have been a laughing matter had it not been for the fact that upon comparing it to others, it suggests the president’s messianic vision of his mission. That reinforces the concerns in relation to both Iran’s will to get equipped with nuclear weapons and Ahmadinejad’s speeches calling to “wipe Israel off the map-http://www.voltairenet.org/article130818.html]” and destroy the US.
Last November 16, Ahmadinejad said his government had the mission to pave the way for the return of Imam Mehdi – the mythical twelfth Imam of the Shiites. Rumour has it that when Ahmadinejad was the mayor of Teheran, he wanted to change the city for the arrival of Imam Mehdi, and he would have wished his government to draw up a pact of loyalty to the Imam and request $ 17 m dollars to restore a mosque dedicated to him. According to some sources, Ahmadinejad thinks the Imam will come back in two years. He’ll be part of a radical sect – the Hojatieh society – a group that even ayatollah Jomeini found too extremist but which is influential in the current Iranian government.
It cannot be tolerated that such religious zealots own the nuke.

“Reining in Iran”
Author
Bill Frist

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Bill Frist is a doctor, Republican senator for the state of Tennessee and the Senate Majority leader.
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Source
Los Angeles Times (United States)
Reference “Reining in Iran”, by Bill Frist, Los Angeles Times, December 26, 2005.
Summary The mullahs that have led Iran for the last 26 years are implementing a campaign aimed at preventing all kinds of dissidence and supporting terrorism. International efforts to prevent Iran from having an atomic programme failed during the last weeks. Therefore, the United States will have to deal with a nuclear crisis if it does not act quickly. Today’s Iran is characterized by the huge differences between the hostile-to-the-world leading class and a people that want to join the international community. However, Iranians’ wish of freedom has not prevented their leaders from building a terrifying arsenal.
Iran has missiles capable of hitting Israel, part of Europe and the American troops in the Middle East, already. World democracies are aware of the danger an Iran with nuclear weapons can represent for the Middle East, but the International Atomic Energy Agency->http://www.iaea.or.at/] (IAEA) has not reached a final agreement on this issue for, undoubtedly, some members fear Teheran could abandon the Non Proliferation Treaty. The Bush administration has not presented the Iranian issue to the UN Security Council yet because Russia and China are not willing to incriminate Teheran.
Negotiations with our allies must be made to ask them to support trade sanctions against Iran. An international embargo on all technologies Iran might use for its nuclear programme must be established. If this is not effective, the embargo could be extended to arms sales and those who don’t follow the rules could be penalized.
If sanctions are not imposed, theocrats won’t negotiate.

“Is it still possible to stop Teheran’s fascislamites?”
Author
Bernard-Henri Lévy

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Bernard-Henri Lévy, ringleader of the «new philosophers», and journalist of weekly Le Point of Claude Imbert. Author of Qui a tué Daniel Pearl.
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Source
Le Point (France)
Reference “Est-il encore possible d’arrêter les « fascislamistes » de Téhéran ?”, by Bernard Henri Lévy, Le Point, December 22, 2005.
Summary Likely, Iran will get the atomic weapon and the world won’t be able to prevent it. Our only hope is not to see the Islamic Republic of Iran in the hands of a crazy man. This is what I deduced from my conversation with eminent neoconservative intellectual David Brooks in Washington. In this, he is right. Iranians want the weapons of mass destruction. Like the Pakistanis, they think its their right. The difference is that Teheran has clearly expressed its intention of using them against Israel whereas Pakistan wants them for defensive purposes. I also think Brooks is right when he says that, whether we like it or not, and contrary to Iraq, Iran’s nuclear facilities are not located in the same place, as in the case of Osirak. Therefore, their destruction is not easy. I also believe Brooks is right when he affirms there’s no real opposition between Bin Laden’s Sunni followers and Teheran Shiites: they have the same goals against the United States, Israel and the West.
My only doubt is whether we are that out of choices as Brooks assumes. The possibility of a military action gives rise to a problem and the discussion with regard to its feasibility is not over yet, even in Israel. However, we have not used up the arsenal of economic reprisals. Don’t you think that, based on the character of the atomic war announced by Ahmedinejad, we can question an energy policy that is not only leading us to give them all chances to eliminate us, but to buy the energy that will kill us? Are we really that out of choices to deal with an enemy that lives thanks to the oil wee buy from it? What about the ideological effort? And the support to the civil society? And to the assistance, not to the terrorist government, but to the terrified men and women that dream of human rights and who are the real reins of consistent anti-totalitarianism? And diplomatic pressures? As has been said during the last months by dozens of considerate diplomats, as in Great Britain, with regard to the mullahs, too conciliatory, why not paying them back in their own coin? Why not expelling the bandits that are so common in their diplomatic representations?
The United States is involved in that absurd war against Iraq. It’s up to us, the Europeans, to take the lead.

“Solving the nuclear problem of the Teheran Republic”
Author
Djamchid Assadi
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An expert on marketing and communication applied to the Internet, Djamchid Assadi is professor of the American University of Paris and Dijon. He is also an adviser on business issues. He is the author of Les 7 modèles économiques d’Internet.
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Source
Le Figaro (France)
Reference “Résoudre le problème nucléaire de la République de Téhéran”, by Djamchid Assadi, Le Figaro, January 2, 2006.
Summary The international community is rightly concerned with Iran’s nuclear programme and the position adopted by its ultra-conservative president. The election of many military men as members of the Parliament has also strengthened the radical supporters of the nuclear option. Besides, with an expensive oil, it will be very difficult for a transatlantic alliance to impose economic sanctions against Iran. In fact, if there were a common Euro-American position, China and Russia could exercise their right to veto a hostile resolution at the UN Security Council. Today, ultraconservatives extend their negotiations on purpose just to gain time.
Since conciliatory diplomatic solutions have failed, severe diplomatic options should be adopted. Unfortunately, presenting a resolution to the Security Council is a delicate business when everyone’s position is ignored, apart from the fact that such a resolution would undoubtedly be ineffective. Economic sanctions could easily be ignored by Iran, which has strong ties with China and Russia. But, if no diplomacy succeeds in convincing the radical leaders or the Islamic Republic of Iran, would the Americans then resort to military action? Different plans of attack have been analyzed. The Israelis are also thinking about this.
But conventional attacks won’t destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities. This is the reason why since 2004 the US Department of Defence has been analyzing the use of nuclear weapons against Iran. However, such an attack would be counterproductive for it would inevitably hurt the patriotic feelings of the Iranian people who are, mostly, pro Western and even pro-American. In addition, faced with an offensive, the Iranians could mobilize their networks, they could mobilize the Shiites against the United States, sabotage the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process, block the Strait of Hormuz and part of the world oil supplies.
However, giving up should not be an option. To solve the nuclear problem in Iran, to change the attitude of the regime’s ultras by means of dialogue or military action is an illusion. What would really solve the problem is the democratization of the regime by exerting pressures on the Islamic State and by supporting the civil society. The Iranian democracy would contribute to world peace.

“Contradictions regarding Iran’s situation”
Author
Daryush Shayegan

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Former professor of Indian studies at Tehran University, Daryush Shayegan was later professor of comparative Philosophy and director of the Iranian Center for Dialogue of Civilizations. After the revolution of 1979, he was director of Ishmaelite studies in France for 9 years. Then he became chief editor of the Iramé magazine, in Washington, before he return to Iran where he established his own editorial house. Today he lives already in Paris, and in Tehran.
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Source
Le Figaro (France)
Reference “L’incongruité de la situation iranienne″, by Daryush Shayegan, Le Figaro, January 2, 2006.
Summary The current Iran has nothing to do with the Germany of the 30’s, except for what Ernst Bloch called the “non-contemporaneity” of Germany, a country which, unlike France and England, did not experience a bourgeois revolution before 1918. The contemporary Iran not only rejects the current moment, but also allows that its archaic ideas hamper its development. Today, the Iranian youngsters see their future blocked due to the impact of the revolution of 1979, which was a revolution and a counter-reform: against the progress and the principles of the Century of the Lights, against modern age, against the emancipation of women, against the liberalism of the emerging bourgeois class, in short, against most of the society whose habits, as just mentioned above, had developed in line with modernity.
Iran, however, after 27 years of setbacks during its development, has moved backwards. Rafsanyani’s government, arduously and with difficulty, had readjusted the economic structures of the country by privatizing part of the economy. Jatami’s government liberalized habits. But such policies failed to fill the gaps of Iran’s non-contemporaneity, because Iran is today a complex society where the toughest superstitions coexist, including the most unlikely messianic ideas, the fiercest mental independence, the most strictly egalitarian religion, behaviours which are almost “libertarian” and even sometimes openly libertine, that is, daring beliefs close to the most fantasizing trends of spirituality of the New Age. Today, despite the intransigence of the current policy, the Iranians have opened to the world and become interested in all events. Iran is a country of paradoxes where philosophy books are sold better than novels.
The air of changes blows due to the spirit of today’s trends and does not exclude anyone, so that for example, even the toughest radicals behave as liberals in the house of the Islamic Assembly. The heterogeneity emerging in a country where religion is considered total and totalitarian shows that the trends of changes that shake our world are stronger than the resistance of identity. As things are at the moment, nothing could stop them.

“After Babylon, Persia”
Author
Arshin Adib-Moghaddam
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Dr. Arshin Adib-Moghaddam is a professor at the Center of International Studies of Cambridge University and member of the administrative Council of Tharwa Project which is aimed at supporting the political initiatives in the Middle East.
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Source
Antiwar.com (United States)
Reference “After Babylon, Persia″, by Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, AntiWar.com, January 4, 2006.
Summary Last year, I described in details how the neoconservatives (together with their friends and allies of the Israeli Likud) had directly participated in raising people’s awareness regarding the invasion on Iraq. If we analyze the hypothesis under which the neoconservatives established the same guidelines to attack Iran, where are the facts then? This problem is found in three political realities that define the institutional and ideological environment of the US contemporary neo-conservatism and its impact on relations with Iran.
Firstly, the “global war on terror” and doctrine of preventive action of Bush administration have become two main pillars of the US foreign policy, which champions the use of military force against potential enemies even when they pose no immediate or indirect threat to the United States. For Norman Podhoretz, chief editor of the influential neoconservative magazine Commentary between 1960 and 1995, the “global war on terror” is just a way to define “a new type of imperial mission of the United States, whose objective is to favour the emergence of governments in the Middle East which would be characterized by providing more support to Western values than the one provided by the existing despotic regimes today”. After the fall of Baghdad, said Podhoretz, “the political and military logic will be that we would be obliged, eventually, to overthrow five, six or seven tyrannical regimes more in the Muslim world”. The doctrine of preventive strategic action announced in 2002 by Bush is the political justification of this plan. The country has to “face through the use of military force if necessary, the evil regimes that do not respect international laws”. Everything indicates in Washington that Iran is on the list of the next attack, as shown in the secret presidential guideline disclosed by the Washington Post.
Secondly, it is the constant characteristic of every neoconservative strategy that is aimed at discrediting all democratic processes, no matter how weak they might be, in the country which is a target in order to undermine the State diplomatic power in question. In Iran, elections are labeled by Michael Ledeen from American Entreprise Institute as a “theater of shadow plays, a comedy that is performed to deceive and prevent us from supporting the forces that seek a real change in Iran”. For Kenneth Timmerman, in an article widely broadcasted by the international media, the participation of the Iranian electorate is insignificant and the candidates are irrelevant because they were “evaluated and selected by the Mullahs”. Nir Boms, vice-president of the Center for Freedom in the Middle East and former liaison official of the Israeli Embassy in Washington, Elliot Chodoff, Israeli Army Commander and Abbas Milani or Michael McFaul, who are running the Project on Iranian Democracy of the Hoover Institution publish regularly distorting articles in this regard.
The third pillar is the organization American Israel Public Affairs Committee ( AIPAC) that since one and a half years ago has made the Iranian nuclear question its central issue among US politicians. In May 2005, the AIPAC, more than ever before, presented a multimedia show set up by Walt Disney engineers in order to present the progress and dangers of the Iranian nuclear program. The AIPAC funds a think tank army and pressure groups that seek a change of regime in Iran, for example, the Coalition for Democracy in Iran (CDI) of the Committee for the Present Danger. While some support the monarchists of Reza Pahlavi, the Iran Policy Committee (IPC) lobbies in favor of the Mujahedin e-Khalq (MEK) an organization which is, however, considered as terrorist by the United States and Europe. They were allocated three million dollars for the 2005 budget that was approved by the US Congress.
The neoconservative activists have come with the explanation for the conflict they are preparing in a personal presentation of international relations. It is in line with the institutions (for example, the Project for a New American Century); the language that would be immediately used and broadcasted by the media until it becomes a common place (for example “The Axis of Evil”); the coined phrases that distort the problem (for example “why do they hate us?”); and finally, the legitimate doctrines (for example, preventive action). This strategy turns the rest of the countries into simple replaceable variables. Preventive action and the “war on terror” become changeable and useful concepts for anything that enables recognizing any military action at a global scale. All local conflicts are just episodes of the same neoconservative project, the “Fourth World War” invented by Eliot Cohen and broadcasted by James Woolsey. Even when we are able to prevent a crisis, the US neoconservatives will be already planning the next one. The US neoconservatism is defined by war, a war launched by different means. It is up to the peace forces to put an end to a doctrine so corrupted.

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