The future of Iraq seems dark. It could rapidly turn into a platform to export chaos to the region and a sanctuary for Al Qaeda. Today, regardless of the fate of the constitutional draft, Iraq exhibits all the elements necessary for the outbreak of a civil war. Tensions among ethnic and religious groups increase while the Syrian and Iranian influence damages the stabilization plans of the United States.
Blind with its ideological convictions, Washington made many mistakes when it did not take into account the Iraqi reality. Those errors translated into a strengthening of the extremist forces. It is a pity that secular and trans-community parties almost do not exist and have so little influence. The Shiites have developed two parties very close to Tehran: the ASRII and the Al-Dawaa. They owe a lot to Iran and have a great debt with the Sunnis. As to the latter, the political scenario is shared by those who feel nostalgia for the Baas party and Zarkaui’s Islamists. However, George W. Bush wants to begin a withdrawal to limit the damages in the elections of 2006, which will inevitably lead to an outbreak in the country. Starting from this premise, the minorities would try to be heard in the region, opening the way for a global redefinition of its borders.
This situation contravenes the US plans of democratization, struggle against Islamism and its intentions to obtain its autonomy with respect to the Saudi oil. Regarding Islamism in Iraq, it is prospering in its two versions: Shiite and Sunni. The remarkable effect caused by the US intervention in Middle East is that it significantly changed the sclerotic “Arab order”. For this reason, the renunciation of certain countries like Libya to their nuclear programs is a positive fact, or also the expulsion of the Syrian army from Lebanon. However, the fact the United States is bogged down in Iraq, allows Iran to challenge the international community. It is also the consequence of the Arab nationalism that has created an authoritarian order, sometimes dynastic, and which is sclerotic today.

Le Figaro (France)
Circulation: 350 000 copies. Property of Socpresse (founded by Robert Hersant, it is owned today by planes manufacturer Serge Dassault). This is the reference journal of the French right.

Une impasse totale et une décomposition prévisible”, by Antoine Basbous, Le Figaro, September 2, 2005.