An Event and a Regional Trend

The Turkish movement in north Iraq imposed political and field consequences on the behavior of the US because the attacks of the Kurdistan Workers Party from the Iraqi lands were considered a US testing message after the US organs linked the previous years this group with its plans in the area.
The attacks on the Turkish army aim at activating the project of dividing Iraq and knowing the scope of Ankara’s government’s retaliation against the consequences that may result from establishing a Kurdish entity that can embrace Kurdish groups from the neighboring states to carry out operations inside these countries on the rhythm of the US agenda. This tendency formed a basic axis in the plan of Israel and the neocons since the occupation of Iraq, through preparing certain positions on the borders of Syria, Iran and Turkey. But this issue formed the corner-stone of understandings among the three countries on the basis of clinging to the unity of Iraq and rejecting its division and considering this topic as one of the invariables of regional stability because it affects the national security of Iraq’s neighboring states. The Americans and the Israelis threatened before to establish bases to target Syria via the Iraqi borders. Such dangers pushed Iran to close its borders a few weeks ago, and pushed also Turkey to resort to the military option due to the security dangers that threaten Turkey and its structure as a state.
The reactions of the three states, and especially the stand announced by the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, pushed the Americans to reconsider their calculations, and this was reflected in different stands in the last 24 hours. But experts said the issue will continue despite the new fears in Washington from the developments of the Turkish stand and its possible reflections on the map of the area and its balances. It is clear that the strength of the Iraqi state and Iraq’s unity form the content of confronting the danger of division and that enmity with the neighboring states may lead to new wars that escalate the tragedies in Iraq and set fire to the area as a whole.

An Event and a Lebanese Trend

A leading source in the opposition said the escalation reached its climax yesterday in the speech of the leader of the Lebanese Forces Samir Geagea, which concentrated on rejecting conciliation in principle and belittling the importance of searching for a president that does not belong to the opposition or to the loyalists. Reports said that Geagea chose this stand on the basis that his allies in March 14 coalition will join him in the end and support naming him as a president through the half plus one quorum or the present representatives.
The press focuses on Bkerki’s committee and the direct negotiations between the house speaker and representative Sa’ad al-Hariri. The press ruled out the possibility of Bkerki’s discussions’ success in naming one person as a presidential candidate that all the main Maronite sides agree on.
The meeting between general Aoun and Amine Gemayel created a Christian political climate that reduced the fears of the street from the possibility of internal confrontation especially in the northern Matn area. Reports said that the representative of the National Liberal Trend in Bkerki’s meeting proposed Amine Gemayel in the list of the 13 presidential candidates but the loyalists opposed this.
The corridors information said the discussion will focus on specific names in order to solve the crisis before the new date of the electoral session which is November 12.
Lebanese circles expressed concern over the US secretary of state Rice’s statements before the Congress yesterday and the UN secretary general Ban Ki-Moon’s report. This reflects the reality of the US intentions, endorsement of the logic of explosion and hindering conciliation in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the beating of the drums of war is still heard in the area and some of the loyal sides talk about scenarios for an Israeli aggression on Syria and Lebanon.

Arab and International Press

Claude Salhani published an article in the Washington Times saying that fears surround Annapolis peace conference and analysts do not expect its success.
The Israeli paper Yidiot Aharonot said the leadership of the internal front in the Israeli army intends to start in the coming few days a campaign that aims to prepare the Israelis for facing the possibility of the eruption of a new war in the area and the possibility of targeting Israel with missiles.
Thomas Friedman said in an article published in the New York Times that ignoring the condition in Iraq will lead to dangerous consequences and that it is necessary to set a timetable for withdrawing the US troops to motivate the Iraqi leaders and reach a regional compromise, which means ending the cold war in the Middle East with Iran and Syria.
He added that stability in Iraq depends on Lebanon’s stability and solving the Israel-Palestinian conflict.
The Emirate paper Al-Khaleej said the international atomic energy agency and the Arab states should curb the Israeli attempts to ignite the fire of war against Iran.
International News Agencies said the Iraqi finance minister Baqer Jabr Al-Zubeidi described his talks with the International Monetary Fund on extending the agreement with Iraq as positive; pointing out that a preliminary agreement with the Fund will cancel 30 billion dollars of Iraq’s debts.
The budget report at the Congress said the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will const 4.2 trillion dollars in the next decade.
International Press Agencies said the Congress members agreed on a draft law for reducing the rate of suicides among the US soldiers who ended their service.

Satellite Stations’ Interviews

Program: The Day’s Harvest
The US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice said Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran’s support for terrorism are the biggest challenge to the US security and that the US will stop Iran’s behavior that destabilize the area.
Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad said the US will not attack Iran to force it to stop its nuclear program and nobody can affect the will of the Iranian people in this respect.

Lebanese Press

An-Nahar said the four-sided committee reached the limited number of 13 presidential candidates.
As-Safir said the Saudi-Iranian consultations continue to reach an understanding on the Lebanese file, while the visit of the Egyptian foreign minister will inaugurate a new stage of Arab interest in Lebanon.
Al-Akhbar said Israel prepares for war and new signs appeared in Israel show that the war in the area is imminent.

Television Stations’ News in Lebanon

Al-Manar said the deliberate fires that destroy the environment in Lebanon raise questions on those who stand behind them.
The NTV said political fires will erupt if the Lebanese sides do not reach a solution concerning the presidential file.
The NBN said the mobile fires continued in Lebanon to reap the green areas.
The OTV said there is nothing new on the Lebanese arena.
The LBC said secret meetings take place in Lebanon.
The Future said the crisis continues but optimism lingers.

Television Stations’ Interviews in Lebanon

Program: Useful Summary
Head of the National Liberal Trend general Michel Aoun said that he is a conciliatory presidential candidate.
Aoun stressed that understanding with Hezbollah will continue and that his meeting with Amine Gemayel is not a political alliance.

Tendencies is a daily political watch newsletter about the Near East, issued by New Orient News agency in Beirut, Lebanon. It is available on in Arabic, English and French languages. Also worth a read is Indicators, the daily Near East economic watch newsletter, available in Arabic and English.