An Event and a Regional Trend

The new report published by the US journalist Seymour Hersch in the New Yorker refers to the possibility of modifying the Pentagon’s military plan to attack Iran, so the US army will target the revolutionary guards positions instead of the virtual nuclear targets, which were mentioned by information cited by Hirsch himself before.
After the Hollywood-like Israeli air raid on Syria, which served press goals, Hirsch’s new report confirms that the US military movements in the Gulf and the threats against Iran can be put within the framework of the Hollywood-like escalation against Iran according to some experts, who oppose the opinion which says that the decision to launch war on Iran is made and the issue is only an issue of time, arguing that the US is unable to launch a new war.
The available information said the Americans have activated the communication channels for mediation with Iran through some European capitals and Washington is worried about Iran’s threats to stop coordination in the Iraqi topic.
Anyway, Washington is perplexed and the difficult Iranian number occupies its mind as some analysts think. The price of coexistence with this rising power through containing it is more difficult than attacking it in the area of oil and Israel. The comparison between the Chinese and Iranian complex is present in the US mind strongly. Washington did not digest until today, and since Nixon’s visit to Beijing in the seventies, the reality of the growing Chinese power and it only remembers the Chinese model on the economic and political field when it thinks of Iran.

An Event and a Lebanese Trend

Some analysts in the Lebanese press think that Representative Saad Hariri’s visit to Washington and his meeting with president Bush may form a turning point in the labor of the presidential merit. A leading opposing source said it is strange that those who talk about sovereignty and independence depend on foreign intervention, and the US parting word in this respect will be crucial for making their decision. According to this equation, Lebanon will go to an agreement on the president or move to confusion and internal conflict as the Americans want. If Bush wants confusion in Lebanon, Al-Hariri may return to insist on naming a president from the loyalists with any quorum, but if Washington listens to the European warnings from the danger of confusion on the UNIFIL soldiers and to the intelligence reports, which say that the Future Trend will collapse if anarchy dominates, and new extremist groups will emerge, maybe Al-Hariri will return enthusiastic to reach an understanding with the House Speaker Berri. But the representative Walid Jumblatt is determined to choose internationalization and reject any compromise and this was expressed in his message yesterday to many foreign presidents and prime ministers and to Lebanese the parliament.
Meanwhile, the House Speaker continues his endeavors, and attention is focused on the meeting which will be held in Paris in the near future by foreign ministers of France, Italy, and Spain. Press reports conveyed angry atmospheres in Madrid and Rome concerning Kouchner’s recent statements against Syria and Iran, while the French Ambassador Jean-Claude Cousseran may visit Damascus and Tehran before a visit that the Spanish Foreign Minister Moratinus may make to Syria.
The European move is not far from Washington and the supposed loyal hawks and moderates. And when the contradictory indicators appear, the result will be that the final decision is not made. The question which should be posed here is: will Al-Hariri return with a decision from the White House?

Arab and International Press

Agence France Presse quoted the Arab League center for the dry lands studies in Syria as saying that the Israeli air raid on Syria did not target it.
International Press Agencies quoted an Israeli official source as saying that Israel does not refuse the participation of any Arab state in the peace conference on condition that it be recognized.
The Daily Telegraph said the US neo-cons are trying to prepare a file, which includes what they call as "the Iranian violations of the international law" in order to justify a military action against Iran.
The New Yorker said in its editorial that the diplomacy may lead director of the International Atomic Energy Agency al-Baradei to serve the crazy ones in Washington and Tehran and lead to war.
Jonathan Zimmerman said, in an article published in the Christian Science Monitor, that Columbia’s university’s invitation of the Iranian president was not aimed at recognizing him or his ideas, but it meant to show the freedom of speech.
The journalist Seymour Hersch said, in an article in the New Yorker, that the US may launch air raids on the revolutionary guards positions instead of the nuclear installations, considering this as a shift in the US strategy towards Iran.
Al-Bayan said, in its editorial, that the voices in Iraq that welcomed the Senate proposal to divide Iraq are more dangerous than this proposal.

Arab Satellite Stations’ Interviews

Program: Open Dialogue
Secretary General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine Ahmed Jibril said the resistance forces, Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and the Palestinian people will confront America an Israel if they commit any folly, pointing out that they target Syria and Iran.
He added that thousands of Palestinians will fight with Syria in this case.

Lebanese Press

As-Safir said Geagea an Jumblatt have started to call for internationalizing the presidential merit.
The paper added that the Europeans are worried about their soldiers, who work within the UNIFIL, pointing out that the House Speaker has expressed relief concerning his talks with Saad Hariri.
An-Nahar said representative Walid Jumblatt has started an international campaign under the title of protecting the merit.
Al-Akhbar said Junblat asks for international support against Syria, while the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia and Iran support dialogue in Lebanon.

Television Stations News in Lebanon

Al-Manar said the presidential merit did not witness practical and public stands yet.
The NTV said Walid Jumblatt called Arab and foreign states for protecting Lebanon from the Syrian assassinations.
The NBN said agreement on the president is not impossible if the intentions are good.
The OTV said it will be critical to ask who the leader of the loyalists is, but the most important question is: what is the stand of the loyalists towards the current crisis?
The LBC said the difference in the vision between he opposition and the loyalist has become clear.
The Future said head of the Future trend Al-Hariri said the time for imposing presidents on Lebanon is gone.

Television Stations’ Interviews in Lebanon

Program: The Week in an Hour
Former Minister Sleimane Frangié said: the new president should enjoy a consensus and should be Christian and support the resistance’s weapons.

Tendencies is a daily political watch newsletter about the Near East, issued by New Orient News agency in Beirut, Lebanon. It is available on in Arabic, English and French languages. Also worth a read is Indicators, the daily Near East economic watch newsletter, available in Arabic and English.