An Event and a Regional Trend

Experts think that the dangerous deterioration in Pakistan is the result of the US policies in this country. The previous chapters of the cold war witnessed a comprehensive US use of the Pakistani position on the security, political and military level in Asian equations and in confronting the Soviet Union especially during the epoch of the Afghani war. The US pressures concentrated since September 11 attacks on getting rid of this big legacy in the Pakistani intelligence organs and the tribal reality for the benefit of the requirements of the stumbling war that the Nato is fighting in Afghanistan.
The Pakistani opposition forces are nurtured by ramified crises including the Pakistani regime’s submission to the priorities of the US political, security and economic influence in a country whose Islamic people interact with many issues that form a front against the US policy on an international level, while many of Pakistani political forces and blocs move amid religious and tribal connections across the Pakistani-Afghani borders. In addition to this, the social and political problems resulting from the priorities of the US security are the sources of the events and problems.
The US policy’s escape from the failure in Afghanistan and mixing the cards in Pakistan imply big dangers which will affect the area as a whole. This may also reflect a US attempt to escape from the failure in the Arab and Islamic east to another area which is also very important on the level of cross-continental pipelines. The imperial behavior is used to moving among dilemmas and the continuous investment in bloodbaths. This is another adventure in the series of the rolling anarchy.

An Event and a Lebanese Trend

It became certain that agreeing on the president is not probable in the coming days especially because Bkerki said it does not wish to name candidates, while the internal communications are stagnant and the front of Loyal forces and the opposition seems open to all the possibilities if the loyalists respond to the US which prevents understandings in accordance with the logic of the conciliation and the commitments towards the relations with Syria and the issue of the resistance and its weapons.
The opposition sources confirm that the opposition studies all the possibilities and there are many options to confront any coup by the loyalists after the US decision to obstruct the conciliation. Meanwhile, president Lahoud stressed that he will not transfer power to any illegal side.
The loyal sides prepare for holding a session outside the parliament through the half plus one quorum or the present representatives before November 24 and concentrate their efforts to create an impression about the seriousness of this option. Some analysts said this is a part of the required scenario to market the choice of freezing the Lebanese condition through the half plus one equation in return of what is called as the second government in the literature of the loyalists, to refer to the government that the loyalists fear its declaration by president Emile Lahoud before the end of his term.
General Michel Aoun talked yesterday about the popular confrontation that the opposition will fight against the coup which he considered as leaving Fouad Siniora’s government in power or naming a president outside the framework of the constitution. He added that all the means will be available including storming the government’s headquarters within the framework of a popular movement that no one can stop. Meanwhile, the Lebanese issue is present in Sarkozy-Bush summit and will be the topic of the Arab and foreign delegates who will visit Beirut in the coming few days, but the question that no one answered in a convincing way is related to knowing if Bush will give up his decision to push conditions in Lebanon to explosion or if he will accept the approved president and the solution of the crisis. Another question can also be posed: will these endeavors help to reach a compromise or reduce the cost of the confrontation and preserve the status quo in Lebanon until further notice.

Arab and International Press

The Israeli military intelligence confirmed that Hezbollah carried out a big military maneuver in South Lebanon, pointing out that the party wanted Tel-Aviv to understand that it is not affected by the Israeli army’s maneuvers.
The Syrian paper Tichren said in its editorial that Syria clings to legal standards and the international legitimacy’s resolutions and looks forward to a just and peaceful international order.
Al-Bayan said in its editorial that while attention is focused on the Turkish Iraqi borders, the displacement problem escalates in Iraq and threatens the destiny of the country. The Emirate paper al-Khalij said it seems the US occupation will continue in Iraq until all the Iraqis migrate from their country and it is clear that the Arabs do not care about the numbers of the victims and the wounded in Iraq.
Director of the Arab-American Institute in Washington James Zogby said in an article published in some Arab papers that the Democrats talk now about withdrawal from Iraq and playing an important role in achieving peace in the Middle East, pointing out that Hilary Clinton was ambiguous in this respect and did not promise to play a role in making peace.

Satellite Stations’ Interviews

General Michel Aoun said Lebanon witnesses distancing two sects from the government: The Christian sect and the Shia sect and this endangers the Lebanese structure.

Lebanese Press

As-Safir wondered if the French president Nicolas Sarkozy will succeed in kidnapping the compromise during his summit with Bush, pointing out that the general climate is affected by the positive dynamics generated by the meeting of the two French envoys with the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
Al-Akhbar said Lebanon’s destiny is in the hands of Bush and Sarkozy, pointing out that Arab league secretary general Amer Moussa will visit Damascus and Riyadh before heading for Beirut.

Television Stations’ News in Lebanon

Al-Manar said attention is focused on Sarkozy-Bush meeting.
The NTV said the electoral session will be delayed and minister Marwan Hamade described this stage as grey,
The NBN said it will be better if the Arab league secretary general’s visit to Lebanon does not fail like the previous one.
The LBC said the loyalists talk about holding the electoral session through the half plus one quorum.
The Future said the meeting between the Saudi king and the pope is historic and focused on finding a just solution to the Middle East’s conflicts.

Tendencies is a daily political watch newsletter about the Near East, issued by New Orient News agency in Beirut, Lebanon. It is available on in Arabic, English and French languages. Also worth a read is Indicators, the daily Near East economic watch newsletter, available in Arabic and English.