An Event and a Regional Trend

Winograd and a Big Wave of Political Turmoil in Israel

The Israeli circles anticipate the publication of the complete texts of Winograd’s report which were unknown due to the condensed US interventions which aimed at avoiding a dangerous crisis in Olmert’s government due to the publication of the report and hiding names and information related to the war of the summer of 2006 and to protecting the Arab and Lebanese participants in arranging the war and the operational and political covering of this war within the framework of the US administration system of the political and military operations that directed this war.
The crisis inside Olmert’s government started despite all the US pressures and the talk about ending alliances and reestablishing them expanded in the Israeli press. Some analysts do not rule out holding early elections if the attempts of Kadima to turn around the results of Winograd do not succeed through establishing an alliance with the Likud if the Labor decided to leave the government. In short, Winograd is the anticipated event while the Israeli failures on the ground accumulate while the Israeli reports talk about the rise of the Palestinian resistance and the growing of its missiles arsenal and the development of the range of these weapons which made some Israeli analysts mock Olmert wondering about the new report which may be prepared about another failure in Gaza.

An Event and Lebanese Trend

The Sunday Massacre is the Axis of the Events as Musa Waits

The stands and communications which revolve around the Lebanese development remain governed by the interactions of Sunday massacre and the course of the investigations launched by the army’s leadership:
- 1. The press revealed the details of the dialogue between the army’s leader and secretary general of Hezbollah and the frank discussion about the dangerous event and the importance of announcing the result of the investigations and punishing the criminals.
- 2. The press published information about the course of the investigations and the details of what happened on the bloody Sunday. Some of the Lebanese Forces’ elements were arrested while investigations continue on the level of the military institution and target a number of leaders who were in field during the shooting.
- 3. The political and press campaign of the loyalists continued to hold the opposition responsible for what happened and portraying the event from the perspective of the army’s repression of riots that target security. The opposition said that there is a shortcoming in the performance of the military institution that led to its wrong behavior calling for punishing the criminals saying this stand will change a lot of data.
- 4. The circulation of information about the arrival of the Arab league secretary general Amr Musa to Beirut to continue his mission at the beginning of February and interpreting this delay by saying that his communications need some time due to the interactions of the bloody events.
- 5. The opposition stressed confronting the attempts to target the national unity through the sectarian campaigns which are organized by the loyalists and stressed also the political nature of the conflict and the strength of the alliance between the national liberal trend and all the other sides of the opposition, notifying that this alliance was targeted by the plan for schism between al-Shayyah and Ain al-Rumanah.

Arab and International Press

The Israeli paper Haaretz said Israel tested many ballistic missiles and that the military sources said the test is an important and dramatic one for the security of the state.
Yidiot Aharonot said Benjamin Netanyahu did not attend Davos conference and that is why we did not hear protests against those who called for eliminating Israel.
Paul Richter said in an article published in al-Qabas that relations between the US and Russia are nominated for more deterioration due to the Iranian issue.
The Emirate paper al-Khalij said in its editorial that Bush’s State of the Union’s speech did not say anything new and left the state as it is.
The Emirate paper al-Bayan said in its editorial that Bush’s State of the Union’s speech is a mixture of dim justification and monotonous presentation.

Satellite Stations

The Syrian satellite station said Iran belittles the importance of the US pressures concerning its nuclear program.

Al-Arabiya
Program: Special Interview
Representative Walid Junblat said the state of the vacuum will reflect on all the sides.

Lebanese Press

As-Safir said the secretary general of Hezbollah beseeched the army’s leader to preserve the army’s relation to resistance.
Al-Akhbar said Lebanese official sources received in the last hours a diplomatic report from Washington which talks about the White House’s new options concerning Lebanon, and especially the presidential file and the international tribunal concerning Rafiq al-Hariri’s assassination.
Ad-Diyar said that the army’s leader stressed to secretary general of Hezbollah that the army has no bad intentions towards resistance, pointing out that Hasan Nasrullah confirmed that he does not call for a confrontation with the army.

Television Stations in Lebanon

Al-Manar said the southern suburb bid farewell today to the last of the six martyrs who were killed with the bullets of the criminals.
The NTV said that Hezbollah is convinced that the army is responsible for opening fire from the rifles of the army and the assassins.
The NBN wondered about the identity of the criminals who opened fire during Sunday protests.
The OTV said the Sunday events aimed at targeting the conciliation symbol of Mar Mikhail.
The LBC said the Saudi ambassador warned the Lebanese from dangerous consequences if they delay the election of the president.
The Future said that General Michel Aoun hailed the consciousness of the Lebanese citizens and their belief in the understanding paper between Hezbollah and the national Liberal Trend.

LBC
Program: With all the Courage
Former representative Fares Saeed said the disputes in Lebanon are not on the administration of the state but on its nature. It is a cultural division between two scenes: one calls for glorifying the culture of death and the other calls all the sides to cling to al-Taif agreement.
Director of al-Akhbar paper board Hassan Khalil said the series of schism continues and Lebanon is on the verge of undeclared civil war.
Member of Hezbollah political office Galeb Abu Zainab said Hezbollah wants serious and responsible investigation into Sunday events.

Tendencies is a daily political watch newsletter about the Near East, issued by New Orient News agency in Beirut, Lebanon. It is available on Voltairenet.org in Arabic, English, French, German, and Spanish languages. Also worth a read is Indicators, the daily Near East economic watch newsletter, available in Arabic, English and Spanish.