What has Syria got to do with the Boston bombing? Nothing at first glance, yet this event - and the clamor it has sparked - provides the key explanation for the Kerry-Lavrov plan deadlock. If nothing is happening in Syria, it is because Washington and Moscow have run into unforeseen difficulties, including the Chechen imbroglio.
The implementation of the Kerry-Lavrov plan for Syria has run into the ground due to the difficulties encountered by the two superpowers. As for the U.S., it is finding it harder to prevail over allies that were recruited against Syria and that are now required to disband with no compensation. On the Russian side, there is growing concern over the sudden arrival of fighters from the Caucasus, since they could clash with the peacekeeping forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, as it formerly occurred with the Red Army in Afghanistan.
Suddenly, the team change in the Obama administration does not seem to be bearing fruit. John Kerry contradicts himself at every turn, with the result that no one can see the way out of the tunnel. Taking advantage of this situation, new opposition forces sprang up in Congress, where three bills have been filed. The first one subscribes to the Israeli plan to destroy Syria. The second one represents the interests of the military-industrial complex to have a limited war. The third one contemplates the divvying up of gas resources. It is in this context that the attack in Boston took place.
A double bomb blast killed three people and injured over a hundred others at the finish of the Boston Marathon on Tuesday, 16 April 2013, at 14:50 (local time). Thanks to the surprising discovery of a backpack containing the lid of a pressure cooker and to the video surveillance cameras, on Thursday at 17:10 the authorities were able to publish the photographs of two suspects: the brothers Tamerlane and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, aged 26 and 19 respectively. On Friday, the brothers escaped after allegedly killing a police officer on the MIT campus. Then, after hijacking a Mercedes, they were tracked down by the police. More than 200 gunshots were fired. Wounded, Tamerlane died at Beth Israel Hospital while his brother, Dzhokhar, got away on foot before being arrested by the police.
This affair galvanized the attention of television channels worldwide. From Makhachkala (capital of Dagestan), the parents of the suspects declared that they had been set up. Their mother, who seems to have undergone U.S. police pressure, pointed out that they were under close surveillance by the FBI and could not have mounted any operation without its knowledge. Meanwhile, the governor of Chechnya, Ramzan Khadirov, noting that the suspects had not lived in Russia, hastened to denounce any ties with his country.
The personal involvement of the President of the United States, Barack Obama, who spoke four times and made the trip to Boston Cathedral to address a prayer service, shows the importance of the event. The phone call from the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, marked the revival of anti-terrorism cooperation. Still, this may head in two opposite directions.
On the assumption that the common enemy is Chechen terrorism, one may conclude that it will not spill over into Syria: the United States and Russia will work together to stave it off anywhere in the world, including the Levant. On the other hand, it can also be inferred that Washington and Moscow could defeat it at home but ignore it over there. The problem with this type of attack is that it can generate contradictory developments that can be foreseen only by those who have planned them. At any time, they can bring out new elements that will shed light on how the attack will be perceived and the political consequences that will be drawn.
Be that as it may, we can affirm that (1) the issue of Chechnya inhibits the Russians in Syria, (2) that the Boston attack was staged to put Chechen terrorism in the forefront, (3) that the manner in which this affair will be portrayed will determine the unfolding of events in Syria.
The only weak point of this operation is the survival of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. A 19-year old boy uncontrollable.