Russian air force has restarted its shelling of jihadist groups in Syria, which was interrupted under the Turkish-Russian agreements intended to freeze operations in the Idlib region.

On 21 October 2020, the shelling struck the villages of al-Magarah and al-Rami occupied by Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (Al-Qaeda) and the National Liberation Front (Turkey).

It is too soon to know whether they are isolated strikes or the initial stages of renewed fighting.

A second hypothesis could be that the Turkish army was preparing for a probable Russian offensive in Idlib (occupied by the Turkish army) in response to the invasion by jihadi forces of Nagorno-Karabakh.

This time, Germany and France, which are currently at odds with President Erdoğan on migrant issues, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, are no longer likely to assist Turkey logistically against Syria.