The 2004 US Presidential Election
geographical Distribution of the Republican States (in red) and Democrats (in blue).

The main European news agencies which, almost unanimously had announced the possible victory of John F. Kerry, were wrong. On our side, we had stressed the fact that the Bush’s team, which got the White House once by massive fraud, would not hesitate to use fraud again to keep its position. [1].This happened indeed, even when there is no precise indication now as to whether Mr. Bush’s victory was due to fraud or this just reinforced it.

Survey results collected at the ballot box according to sex, ethnic group and political affiliation.

% of
%that voted for...
Sex and Ethnic Group

46 %


47 % 52 % 1 %
54 Women 54 45 1
36 Non Hispanic White Men 40 58 1
41 Non Hispanic White Women 47 51 1
77 Non Hispanic White 44 55 1
11 Blacks 90 10 1
9 Hispanics 56 41 3
2 Asians 61 39 *
2 Others 56 38 2
Political Affiliation
38 Democrats 90 9 1
26 Independent/Others 52 44 2
35 Republicans 7 92 0
22 Liberals 86 12 2
45 Moderates 57 42 1
32 Conservatives 17 82 1

Lots of commentators in the United States highlight the amazing difference found in the surveys conducted at the ballot box and the official results. On the other hand, international observers are flabbergasted in light of the possibility to vote without identity control in several states, as well as by the use of voting machines that can not be verified.

Whatever the case, it is not our job to measure the magnitude of the fraud, but to interpret the image the United States has of itself. And taking into account the approval of the results by the two major parties, this image, even when false, is shared by everyone and imposed on all.
The November 2 elections were not solely related with the designation of the President, but also with a section of the Senate, the House of Representatives and governors, as well as with the exam of numerous referendums.

The participation rate reached 59.6 %, accounting for more than 5% in relation to the year 2000. This is frequently described as “exceptional mobilization”. However, what really draws the attention is the fact that within this context, 40 % of the electorate does not go to the ballot box either because they are not interested in the result or because they believe their vote is not important.
Survey results collected at the ballot box according to age, annual incomes and educational level

% of
%that voted for...
17 18-29 y.o 56 42 1
28 30-44 y.o 48 49 2
30 45-59 y.o 51 47 1
24 60 and older 48 51 0
Annual Income and educational level
8 Less than 11 800€ 65 34 1
15 From 11 800€ to 23 600€ 60 38 1
22 From 23 600€ to 39 300€ 53 46 1
23 From 39 300€ to 59 000€ 46 53 1
14 From 59 000€ to 78 700€ 48 51 0
18 More than 78 700€ 43 55 2
4 Under high school 53 46 1
22 High school graduate 50 48 1
31 University (under graduate) 48 51 1
26 University (graduate) 49 50 1
17 Doctorate 57 41 1

For the presidential election, the electorate exercised a useful vote. The left convinced that Al Gore defeat in the year 2000 was more attributable to the 2,8 million votes garnered by Ralph Nader than to the electoral rigging. The right wing electorate recalled the nine million votes won by Ross Perot, the millionaire, and lost for the Republic Party in 1992 and 1996.

Voters surveyed after leaving the ballot box indicated similar concerns. Those who voted for George W. Bush claimed they were guided by their fear against terrorism and moral decay, both closely linked since very often, terrorism is interpreted as God’s punishment for abandoning Him. John F. Kerry’s voters declared having been inspired by fear against unemployment and the loss of social benefits. Therefore, all place themselves basically at the mercy of their fears and not their dreams.

This state of mind is probably the result of propaganda campaigns launched by the National Security Department which predisposes the electorate to vote for strong men rather than for wise men. George W. Bush’s advocates equally highlight his determination in front of adversity, while John F. Kerry’s advocates stress his tenacity for a change.
While the USA Patriot Act has suspended the fundamental liberties in the Bill of Rights and the Pentagon and the CIA implement torture at a large scale [2], voters (with the exception of those of Ralph Nader) have not come out with a definition on this topic. The detention of hundreds of people at Guantánamo for unknown reasons or the fact that the FBI targets practicing Muslims was not even discussed by the main candidates.

Survey results collected at the ballot box according to religion, vote in 2000 and other factors

% of
%that voted for...
53 Protestants 46 56 1
27 Catholics 50 49 1
3 Jews 78 22 *
7 Other 75 21 3
10 None 69 29 2
22 Evangelical 23 76 1
Vote at the 2000 Presidential Elections
17 Did not vote 57 41 2
39 Albert Gore 91 8 1
41 George W. Bush 10 90 0
Other factors
24 Common law marriage 61 37 1
28 Married (with family) 42 56 2
41 Weapon at home 39 59 2
11 First time voter 55 43 1
4 Gay, lesbian or bisexual 78 21 2
18 Army Veteran 43 55 1

The various local referendums provide a more accurate idea of the American citizens’ ghosts. 11 states were consulted to define marriage as an exclusive heterosexual institution.
In 7 of them, the question equally tended to block the access of the homosexual couples to the rights acknowledge for heterosexual couples. Everywhere the electors declared themselves to be against the gays’ rights following Missouri and Louisiana, which have already amended their own constitution to prevent persons of the same sex from marrying each other. This obsessive topic was in the last presidential speech about the State of the Union, in which George W. Bush announced his intentions to amend the federal constitution in order to ensure the permanence of the biblical institution.

The results show that the supporters of the antigay discrimination are between 57% (Oregon) and 86% (Mississippi) of voters. When they are white, their intolerance conditions their vote in favor of George W. Bush. On the contrary, when they say to belong to ethnic minorities, they distinguish this position from their presidential choice.
Half of the 76 senators had to be renewed. Two new democrats were elected, one of them is Barrack Obana, a jurist from Kenya who excelled within his own party when he opposed the invasion of Iraq. Third black man to enter the Senate in one century, he had 70% of the votes in Illinois.

Seven new republicans were elected. The former Housing Secretary, Mel Martinez, was elected with hardly an advantage in the State of Florida. A visceral anti-Castro man, Martinez is known for having transferred the social housing management to religious organizations. Tom Coburn is back, he had been in the House from 1995 to 2001. He was elected in Oklahoma with a 12 point advantage over his democrat opponent. Coburn embodies the most recalcitrant right wing and is driving a campaign to expel from the Republican Party those leaders who are getting away from the moral values. A physician, he advocates for the extension of the death penalty to those persons who practice abortion.

All in all, President Bush relies now on a majority of 55 republican senators, frequently extremists, against 44 democrats and an independent. Nothing will be able to stop his nomination policy in favor of reactionary or authoritarian personalities in the different posts of the Federal State, beginning at the Supreme Court, where ad hoc trials will end up dismantling the minority rights. Therefore, we should hope for a fast and deep transformation of the whole administration.

Reasons declared by voters to justify their vote, according to survey conducted at the ballot box.

%that voted for...

% of

Question : Q: What was the candidate’s quality that weighed most on your election?

17 strong leader 13 85 1
9 Is concerned with people like me 76 22 2
17 Has clear positions 22 75 2
25 Will promote the necessary changes 95 4 1
Question :Q : What topic weighed most on your vote?
5 Taxes 47 52 1
4 Education 76 23 *
8 Health system 79 21 *
15 Iraq 75 24 0
18 Terrorism 15 85 0
20 Economie / employment 81 17 1
21 Morale values 19 78 3
The asterisks indicate values under 1%. The results herein shown are based on interviews to 13 047 voters randomly chosen at the polls in all countries and on telephone interviews before the 13 states election. The survey at the exit of the polls was directed by Edison Media Research and Miitofsky for the National Election Pool (NEP), from the Washington Post and other mass media. The NEP is an association of the ABC News, CNN, CBS News, Fox News, NBC News and Associated Press.

The 435 members of the House of Representatives had to be renewed. Most of them remain and 39 are changed. Among the incoming democrats are Cynthia McKinney, well-known to our readers. Provisionally taken apart from the Capitol by her party as a result of a maneuver that denigrated her brave positions on the September 11, 2001 attacks, as well as on the Arab Israeli issue, she is elected in Georgia with 64% of the votes.

Opposite to this, on the republican side comes in Judge Ted Poe, who fueled the judicial chronic after contriving humiliating penalties for the convicted. That way, he had a killer’s cell decorated with pictures of his victims and forced a thief to walk by the shop that he had robbed, with a placard around his neck indicating the crime and his sentence.
So, in the end George W. Bush can count in the House on a republican majority reinforced with 231 members against 201 democrats.

Eleven governors should be renewed. Utah elected the millionaire republican Jon Huntsman, also a missionary of the Mormon Church. Meanwhile, Missouri elected young reactionary Matt Blunt, who alternated declarations against gays and abortion with confidences about his three advisers : his wife, mother and God.

The geographical distribution of the votes show a great division : big cities (particularly Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia and New York) are largely democrat, while medium cities and the countryside are republican. The pro Bush states make up a continuous group including the central and southern states, while the pro Kerry states are grouped in three zones : the Pacific Coast, the Great Lakes and the North East. In general, the majorities in each federal state are considerably strengthened and the local opposition adopts a more radical position, which brings about post American Civil War-type separations.

Definitively, the focal point of the presidential election hides a transformation in the U.S. political scenery. Not only does the Democrat Party back out, but the moderate republicans are swept away as well by extremists who denounce, with a Bible in their hands, the moral decay and advocate the need for a crusade against the “Islamic Terrorism”.
The hard right - the majority within the republican majority - is willing to sustain a neo-conservative revolution, which George W. Bush has not been slow to describe. Upon addressing the press on November 4, the elected president announced the continuation of the “war against terrorism”, but also the transformation of the tax system and the total privatization of the retirement funds.

[1See our dossier dedicated to the U.S. elections entitled: Elecciones 2004: los Estados Unidos eligen su presidente. (2004 Elections: The United States Elects its President)

[2See our dossier: Los manuales de tortura del ejército de los Estados Unidos. (The Torture Handbooks of the U.S. Army)