The threat of the former Soviet Union was Washington’s successful argument to get the support of the western countries and the Third World. Thus, America’s vassals felt free to act independently, especially the European and East Asia allies. The so-called war against terror is, undoubtedly, Washington’s new excuse to convince the remaining countries to follow its plans.
The monthly rise and fall of economic indicators are not important. If we analyze the fundamental ones we see a huge governmental debt and deficit in the balance of payment. Where the money is coming from to pay all these debts is unknown. The deficit in the balance of payment is momentarily overcome thanks to the investments coming from Japan, China and South Korea but this situation can not be supported. The Bush administration refuses to raise taxes and a devaluation of dollars would mean the suspension of payments.
The core of the present problem is that the United States has contracted such a debt with he world consumption than when a fall take place it will affect the whole world. We don’t mean we’d be glad with the collapse of the American economy but this is a certain fact. The problem is to define which countries and regions will be the most affected one.
I think that after Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States no longer has human and financial resources or energy to attack other objectives. Some members of the government favor such an action but the military and the few allies they still count on are not willing to support them.
I think the support the United States gave to the “velvet revolutions” in the countries of the former Soviet Union was aimed at weakening the European community through the quick incorporation of new countries that would create economic difficulties.
In my opinion, the world order and the likely geopolitical alliances in the next 20 years will first be those in the Asian region with China, Japan, Korea and other countries of the area. Then, we’ll have the uncivilized conglomerates: The United States, China and Japan against Europe, Russia and probably India. For the United Kingdom, the choice will be difficult. The North-North, East-West and North-South opposition models act simultaneously.
It is not my job to give geopolitical advises to the Russian government. The main goal of the country is to strengthen its position in the world system and domestically. It must select its allies in different areas. I think the Russian foreign policy has started to succeed.

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« Коллапс американской экономики неизбежен », by Immanuel Wallerstein,, June 1, 2005. Text adapted from an interview.