The upcoming Syrian-Arab spring

Bashar el-Assad host the delegation of the Council of the Russian Federation (Damascus, 18 September 2011).

© SANA

Editorial

Erdogan’s adventure and the calculation of the cost
Following the failure which affected the Western alliance at the Security Council due to the Chinese-Russian veto, the American administration publicly assigned the mission of pressuring Syria to Erdogan’s government. Numerous questions are surrounding the Turkish authorities’ hostile steps against Syria during the next stage, after American sources leaked talk about a trade-off that went on during Erdogan’s meeting with American President Barack Obama. The Turkish government thus pledged to operate on the Syrian front in accordance with the American vision, in exchange for American facilitations to the Turkish troops in northern Iraq in the context of the military campaign targeting the strongholds of the Kurdistan Workers Party.
The measures that were circulated in the Turkish and international press and were said will be announced by Erdogan on Sunday, were postponed following the death of the Turkish prime minister’s mother according to what was proclaimed in Ankara. In the meantime, the facts indicate that the Turkish government is going through a state of confusion and reluctance at this level, in light of the emergence of additional transformations in favor of the Syrian national state and the domestic Turkish repercussions generated by Erdogan’s policy and his hostile position towards Damascus and President Bashar al-Assad.
These tackled Turkish measures which were described by the prime minister of the Ottoman illusion as being harsh feature the following.
 Firstly, the revival of the border buffer zone whose establishment had failed during the Jisr al-Shughour events, through a military operation carried out by the Turkish army inside the Syrian territories in order to occupy a thin strip in which bases and camps would be established under Turkish protection for the armed militias affiliated with the Syrian opposition movements that mainly include the Muslim Brotherhood and the groups of Takfir.
 Secondly, the escalation of the economic sanctions imposed on Syria through Turkish banking and commercial measures that would lead the relations between the two countries to the point of total severance.
 Thirdly, the enhancement of direct Turkish intervention to get the Syrian oppositions to unify their political frameworks and join the national council that was proclaimed from Istanbul, but also to form and organize the military force affiliated with this council and whose actions inside Syria have moved to the stage of assassinations and terrorist explosions as it was seen during the last few weeks.
 Fourthly, Turkey’s collaboration with NATO by proclaiming a no-fly zone in Syria, including Homs, Hama and Edlib, in preparation for the launching of a series of air raids on the Syrian defensive military positions.
These measures, following what happened at the Security Council, will represent a Turkish proclamation of war against Syria and constitute a starting point for an overall confrontation which will not only affect Syria. The generals of the Turkish army previously warned Erdogan about this truth, while he personally received harsh warnings from Tehran and Moscow against any military venture because Syria will not be alone in it.

Arab Affairs

News analysis: The upcoming Syrian-Arab spring
The achievement of the Syrian victory will be a starting point for new Arab equations because Syria, which is emerging from the crisis, will offer an archetype of a modern, independent, resisting and democratic state.
The great Syrian event is underway and will not be prevented by all the threats and the pressures, as the Syrians have launched a new phase of defiance against the sabotage plan that is taking the shape of terrorism and killing. It has become clear following the recent assassinations that the powers of the American-Israeli plans and those affiliated with them are going through a state of bankruptcy and collapse, conveyed by the miserable state of the Syrian opposition abroad, whose symbols have been calling for foreign intervention.
Syria’s upcoming spring will be an Arab one. By spring season next year, Syria will have accomplished its constitutional and reformatory steps and the national Syrian state that is being renewed will be more immune and powerful. At that moment, the scores will be settled with all those involved. In parallel to the upcoming Syrian rise, the Egyptian labor is strongly ongoing, along with the popular will expressed by the youth to topple the Camp David accord and liberate the country from the forces that have become addicted to their affiliation to the West.
The rise of the Syrian and Egyptian powers will mark a national rise throughout the Arab nation.
And while President Bashar al-Assad - in the coming spring - will be placing the last touches over the renewal of the Syrian national state, Sarkozy might find himself losing in the presidential elections and Obama will be fighting the predicament of his inability to finish the failed wars of Bush’s administration and the obstruction of his presidential campaign due to his economic and social failure that detonated the Wall Street uprising.
In the next Syrian Arab spring, many Western agents in the region and several Arab countries will find no place except in the trash bins, while grass will grow on the doors of their offices which they have established in Doha, Istanbul and Paris with the oil money that constituted the price of the Syrian blood being shed by the terrorists.

News analysis: Netanyahu and the ghost of the early elections
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to get the ministers in his government to approve the recommendations of the Trajtenberg committee for change and social reform, constituted a major political blow to him and was perceived by some prominent Israeli political analysts as being a sign pointing to the possible staging of early elections.
Most Israeli newspapers agreed this week over the defeat of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Hence, Haaretz and Yediot Aharonot tackled the possible staging of the next elections at an earlier date, especially in light of what awaits Netanyahu during the winter session.
For his part, Yossi Verter wrote in Haaretz it would have been better to potstone the ratification of the Trajtenberg report, adding that Netanyahu’s failure was not only technical but that it also affected the core, as the prime minister discovered that his partners in the governmental coalition have their own calculations and are not taking his status, leadership and commitments into consideration. The Israeli commentators added that even Ehud Barak, who is described as being “non-existent without Netanyahu,” refused to offer his ministers’ votes in favor of those supporting Netanyahu’s position. Based on the above, it has become certain that the Israeli government is going through a state of political turmoil which affected the Israeli street and prompted it to act during the last few months. Consequently, many possible scenarios are on the table, namely:
The occurrence of a governmental division and the preparation by some parties of the dismantlement of the coalition and the staging of early elections.
Netanyahu’s ability to achieve an understanding inside the ruling coalition to guarantee a good majority in favor of his proposals which will have to face the test of voting at the Knesset. Its failure then will prompt an urgent call for early elections.
An attempt by ministers and deputies from various blocs to look into the formation of new coalitions that will reshuffle the cards in the early elections, which is an idea that is currently on the mind of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.
The early elections might be an option that might not truly emerge before the maps of the new alliances are clear. But all the Israeli politicians are afraid of a new surprise on the street which has exited its silence and redrew the priorities in the government that is now far from being a ruling political coalition.

The Arab file

Libya

• On the field, the battles continued between the forces of the new Libyan authority and the ones loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi inside the city of Sirte, amid the deteriorating humanitarian situation of the citizens who are besieged in the city and are suffering from a shortage of water, medicine, fuel and food.

• For his part, Muammar Gaddafi said in an audio recording: “The leaders of the developed world who recognized the national transitional council that came to power with NATO’s help will face a bleak fate.” He called on the Libyans to take to the streets by the millions and let their voices be heard, in rejection of the council of NATO’s agents and what they are trying to impose in terms of destruction tools.

Yemen

• The city of Zinjibar, the capital of the Abyane province that is located in the southern part of the country, is witnessing fierce battles between the governmental troops and hundreds of armed men from the Al-Qaeda organization. Pieces of information have mentioned the fall of many victims from both sides.

• The commander of the central security forces, Yehya Mohammad Abdullah Saleh, i.e. the president’s nephew, announced that his uncle will not sign the Gulf initiative which he said went against the Yemeni constitution and was consequently impossible to implement.

Palestine

• The settlers have burned mosques while the occupation army has eradicated hundreds of trees, ruined the land, destroyed homes and arrested citizens in the cities and provinces of the West Bank.

• In the meantime, thousands of detainees in the prisons of the occupation are continuing their hunger strike following the failure of a meeting held between the representatives of the detainees and officials in the prisons administration who refused to meet any of their demands. In this context, the occupation forces launched oppression campaigns, raided a number of prisons, attacked the detainees and isolated many among them.

• The European parliament in Strasbourg supported Palestine’s request to join the UN with full membership, while UNESCO’s executive council recognized the request presented by President Mahmud Abbas to ensure Palestine’s membership in the organization.

Syria

• An armed terrorist group assassinated Doctor Mohammad al-Omar and Sariah Hassoun, the son of the mufti of the republic. Syrian Mufti Ahmad Hassoun thus considered that the assassination of his son did not target him personally, rather targeted Syria to force it to succumb to the Zionists. He said in his son’s eulogy: “Those committing these acts are not targeting individuals. They are targeting the country and want Syria to kneel down before the Zionists and America. However, they will not achieve their goals since even if there is only one man left, he will not relinquish Palestine, will not kneel down before the enemies of the nation, will not be a coward and will not kill the innocent.”

• On the other hand, a number of martyrs and wounded fell with the bullets of the armed terrorist groups in the various regions, while these groups also targeted a train with an explosive device.

• The Syrian opposition abroad announced following its meeting in Istanbul the formation of the Syrian National Council which assured in a statement it was supporting the protests in the country until the toppling of the regime and the establishment of a civil state. It also called on the United Nations to secure an international protection for the civilians in Syria, even if this is done militarily and through the bombing of positions affiliated with the Syrian army. This option was rejected by the opposition forces on the domestic arena, and oppositionist Haitham Manah said that the council was being run by the Washington club.

• During a session held by the Security Council, Russia and China used their veto right against a European draft resolution targeting Syria. Lebanon, India, South Africa and Brazil abstained from voting. Doctor Boutheina Shaaban, the political and media adviser of the presidency of the republic, said that the United Nations witnessed a historical day with Russia and China’s use of the veto right to block the European draft resolution against Syria at the Security Council. She added: “Moscow and Beijing stood alongside the people and against injustice. The Syrians are relieved to see other powers in the world standing in the face of hegemony and military interference in the affairs of the countries and the people.

Israeli file

• The Israeli papers issued this week tackled American Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta’s visit to Israel and his meeting with Ehud Barak, indicating that the talks between them revolved around bilateral security issues, the action of the Palestinians to earn their state’s recognition by the UN, the repercussions of the Arab Spring and the Iranian nuclear program. They also pointed to Panetta’s warning against the mounting isolation of Israel in the regional level, in light of the ongoing changes in the region.

• The papers also carried reports about the ousting of the Deputy Israeli Ambassador in Washington Dan Arbell from his post, after an investigation conducted by the Shabak proved his responsibility in the leaking of sensitive security information to a journalist.

• The papers also followed the amendments introduced by the British government over the law related to the arrest of senior Israeli officials against the backdrop of war crimes and crimes against humanity, and the plan to tighten the measures on the Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons.

Lebanese affairs

News analysis: Lebanese involvement in Syria’s sabotage and the responsibilities of the state
American Ambassador Maura Connelly issued her orders to the March 14 forces to escalate the actions supporting the Syrian oppositions, continuing with the request she made following her meeting with Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn in a way exposing the existence of an American decision to exercise all forms of pressures and interferences serving the attempts to use Lebanon as an arena to sabotage Syria. The same had happened during Feltman’s presence in the Awkar embassy and his attempts to turn the areas of influence of the Future Movement into dens for the Muslim Brotherhood group and Abdul Halim Khaddam.
 Firstly, it is clear through the developments and the facts seen during the last six months that Lebanese reality is governed by balances and equations that do not allow the revival of Feltman’s plan, despite the acute pressures inflicted on Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government and the American attempts to tap into Lebanese banking and economic files to activate the pressures and sanctions targeting Syria starting from Lebanon.
Anyone involved in the plan to sabotage Syria is a conspirator against the country, its economy and its future. This is a binding principle for the Lebanese government which is responsible for the implementation of the Taef agreement and for the Lebanese people’s commitments to the laws and regulations.
 Secondly, Lebanon’s government is responsible for the prevention of any interference undertaken by Lebanese political sides in Syrian affairs. This includes the smuggling of arms into Syria, the facilitation of the entry of armed men, the establishment of operation rooms affiliated with the Syrian oppositions on Lebanese soil and the harboring of the opposition’s leaders who are using their positions in Lebanon under the protection of Lebanese parties and forces to manage the sabotage plans inside their country.
The Lebanese governmental leniency at this level, features many headlines, and it seems clear the Lebanese army institution is the sole one responsible for the fighting of the arms smuggling into Syria and the pursuit of the saboteurs on Lebanese soil. But all the other facets of Lebanese involvement in the conspiracy against Syria are still without accountability and control. This is dangerous and necessitates and urgent action by all the concerned institutions, at the head of which is the cabinet and the presidency, since Lebanon’s silence toward the intervention and the ongoing instigation is not wise and carries great threats affecting Lebanon’s security, stability and joint interests with the Syrian people and state.

The Lebanese file

• The Lebanese Cabinet met this week and ratified a number of decisions, namely the appointment of a new president for the Lebanese University, i.e. Doctor Adnan al-Sayyed Hussein. This decision prompted criticisms by the bloc of Deputy Walid Jumblatt, namely by Minister Ghazi al-Aridi who noted that the former minister only knew how to speak Arabic.

• These criticisms were met with a strong response from the governmental majority that defended its position by pointing to the high level of competence enjoyed by Hussein.

• In regard to the funding of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which was corroborated by Prime Minister Najib Mikati on several occasions, it seems that the decision related to it will not be ratified in the Cabinet after the head of the Change and Reform bloc, General Michel Aoun, expressed a clear position rejecting any step at this level. Observers believe that this position was fully coordinated with Hezbollah which also opposes Lebanon financing of the politicized tribunal.

• What was noticeable in that same context were the instructions delivered to Bellemare to surrender documents which had been requested by General Jamil al-Sayyed from the international tribunal, knowing that such a request had been presented months ago and that Bellemare kept postponing its implementation.

• On the other hand, the ESCWA headquarters in downtown Beirut were apparently the object of threats which prompted the officials in it to request its protection. This caused the blocking of all the roads leading to it and generated a major traffic problem in the Lebanese capital. This entailed numerous criticisms and actions on the ground by Lebanese citizens who were harmed by these measures, thus forcing ESCWA to adopt a decision to transfer the organization’s headquarters to another location outside of Beirut.