Revolutions are born when various factors converge. According to Professor Jonathan Adelman, three factors must converge:
- That intellectuals begin to denounce the regime’s politics. This is what is happening in Syria since six months ago.
- That economy does not work all right. And since the Syria Accountability Act, the Syrian economy is under crisis.
- That the elites split up. And the alauitas start to believe that their blind support to the Bachar El Assad regime is counterproductive. Also, the Sunnite financial elites are worried about Damascus’ policy.
According to Professor Jack Goldstone, two additional elements are required: the lack of mobilization of the youth and the emergence of a dual authority. Young people stay in Syria but they are more and more dissatisfied. There is not a division within the government yet, due to the fear instilled by the Syrian information service. So far, there has not emerged an authority opposing Bachar El Assad, but the day the people start to demonstrate will mark the end of Damascus’ regime.
The United States should be willing to lead a revolution in Syria in six months and prevent this being similar to that of Iran in 1979.

Source
Washington Times (United States)
Propriété du révérend Sun Myung Moon (Église de l’Unification).

"Time for change in Syria ", by Farid N. Ghadry, Washington Times, June 1, 2005.