An Event and a Regional Trend

Analysts and experts who follow up the Palestinian affairs focused on the complaint submitted by the Palestinian presidency to the UN yesterday demanding imposing international sanctions on the resisting Palestinian organizations that the official text described as terrorist due to their rejection of meeting Salam Fayyad government’s demand to dissolve the armed popular forces and limit the possession of weapons to the police force which will be reestablished in coordination with the US and Israeli security organs.
The step approved by president Abbas took place hours after an official Israeli demand in this respect. This is a dangerous indication of the road that the relations will take on the Palestinian arena and inside Fatah in the aftermath of clashes in the West Bank between Fayyad-Abbas police and al-Aqsa martyrs brigades members who belong to Fateh.
This development forms a big turning point in the conflict inside Fateh and on the level of the Palestinian arena. Informed Palestinian sources stress that the consequences of this conflict will be very dangerous and Abbas’s step is considered as a final submission to the Israeli-US demands that the late president Yasser Arafat rejected them since Oslo agreement and paid his life as a price for this, resisting all the attempts to push him to a civil war.
The same Palestinian sources confirmed that the dilemma to which Abbas and his team were pushed will be an occasion to unify the trend of resistance in the Palestinian street and lay the foundation of the political positioning on the basis of the options that each team adopts concerning the Palestinian national cause. It became possible to talk now about the existence of two lines: the line of submission and the line of resistance.
The sources said communications concerning the national conference will expand to cover leaderships from Fateh in order to establish a broad political base that can restore the PLO and move in the name of the representational and historic legitimacy of the Palestinian cause.

An Event and a Lebanese Trend

Attention in Lebanon is focused on the results of the French-American summit and their reflections on the Lebanese presidential file. We can record the following data from press leaks and available information.
 1. French president Sarkozy received an authorization from Bush to continue the French initiative which aims at securing an agreement on a new president until November 24, which marks the end of the constitutional deadline and the end of president Lahoud’s term.
 2. France announced commitment to support the option of leaving Fouad Siniora in office and participate in forming the political and diplomatic mechanisms to protect this option after November 24 in case the French endeavors fail. Lebanese sources warned from the danger of this option .
 3. The dynamics of the communications sponsored by French presidential advisers. The communications will focus first on reaching a Lebanese mechanism to identify specific names. Then France will secure international protection for the elections if the sides agree.
 4. The US agreement on the French movement’s towards Syria is an authorization that surpasses the Lebanese file to cover all the regional files included in the French-Syrian agenda.
 5. Sarkozy stressed again during hid press conference with Bush the concept of conciliation that the Syrian and French sides agreed on.
 6. The resumption of Bkerki’s communications with the Christian leaderships and the return to the talks between the house speaker Berri and representative Saad Hariri refer to new rounds of endeavors which will start in accordance with the results of Washington’s summit.

Arab and International Press

The Israeli paper Ha’aretz said that the Israeli military intelligence is pessimistic concerning the success of Annapolis conference an holds the Palestinian authority responsible for this because it did not fight the infrastructure of terrorism as demanded from it.
The paper added that the intelligence thinks that Abbas will leave his office if the conference fails.
The Israeli paper Ha’aretz said that the Israeli transportation minister Shaol Mofaz discusses the Lebanese and Iranian files in Washington and ways of action against Iran.
The Emirate paper Al-Khaleej said in its editorial that the Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert described Annapolis conference as a public relations festival, pointing out that Olmert refused to include the issue of the Syrian occupied Golan in the agenda of the conference.
Al-Bayan said in its editorial that the visit of the Spanish king to Ceuta and Melilla poses many questions and seems strange.
The paper wondered about the reasons that stand behind activating a very sensitive and critical file and increase tension between the two states.
Professor of international law in the Lebanese university Khalil Hussein said in an article published in some Arab newspapers that Russian president Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran can be considered as a state visit and has different messages to different directions.
The writer added that Russia has no interest in the presence of a super regional power on its borders but benefited from Iranian projects and helped Iran to relatively escape the sword of sanctions.

Satellite Stations Interviews

Syrian Satellite Station
Evening News
Austrian minister of foreign affaires Hanz Vinkler said Syria has a major role in implementing peace in the area and should be part of the peace process.

Lebanese Press

As-Safir said Washington extended the authorization for France to continue its initiative in Lebanon pointing out that the summit with Bush gave Sarkozy a chance to achieve something in the Lebanese file.
The Lebanese press focused on the Russian stand concerning what happens in Lebanon quoting the Russian foreign ministry as saying that if the Lebanese sides do not succeed in electing a president, the country will be open to civil war.

Television Stations’ Interviews in Lebanon

Program: What Else
Former minister Michel Samaha said Walid Jumblatt and some Christians want to impose their logic on the Christians and cancel others, pointing out that some sides launched a campaign against president Lahoud because he refused to submit and hit resistance.

Tendencies is a daily political watch newsletter about the Near East, issued by New Orient News agency in Beirut, Lebanon. It is available on in Arabic, English and French languages. Also worth a read is Indicators, the daily Near East economic watch newsletter, available in Arabic and English.