Three years after George W. Bush’s statement about Iran as part of the “Axis of Evil”, his government has not been able to keep a coherent policy with regard to the Islamic Republic; an attitude the Iranians exploit. Iran, on the other hand, has aligned with the conservatives after Ahmadineyad’s victory. The United States has tried to involve the European Union but talks have failed. Nowadays, Washington and Teheran are looking for allies at the UN Security Council.
China, Russia and India don’t want the case to be taken to the Security Council; Germany has rejected all kinds of military aggression and, what’s even more important, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohammed El Baradei has rejected the intervention of the Security Council. Likewise, and taking into account the Iraqi experience, it will be difficult to convince the two thirds of the IAEA’s representatives with a file coming from the intelligence services. All this favours Teheran. The situation has no possibilities to be solved when Belarus, Cuba and Egypt join in the IAEA.
Nowadays, George W. Bush popularity is at its lowest point and the oil price is 67 dollars a barrel. Therefore, Teheran hopes that Washington will not focus on it. It’s necessary to define a coherent policy.

Daily Star (Lebanon)

Caught between Iran and a hard place”, by Sanam Vakil, Daily Star, September 23, 2005.