An event and a Regional Trend

New Elements in the Iraqi Scene

Recent developments in Iraq in the aftermath of the battles between al-Mahdi army and the government’s forces and the political and the military interactions that resulted from this situation refer to political and field transformations that should be put into consideration according to analysts and experts:
- 1. It is clear that al-Sadr Trend proved its popular force and fighting ability while the press reports talked about the weakness of the government’s forces and their disintegration and their inability to achieve victory. This required the intervention of the US and British forces which failed to terminate the situation.
- 2. The US press reports and investigations say that the exchange of accusations in identifying the responsibility for the battles cast its shadow on the relation between al-Maleki and Bush’s administration.
- 3. Experts in the Iraqi affairs said al-Sadr and his popular trend reflect Iraq’s future power to lead the new stage in Iraq starting from the representational weight and the stand that calls for ending occupation and for resistance. It was clear also that al-Sadr rejects sectarian schism.
- 4. The events refer to the emergence of accelerated changes in he Iraqi conditions in the coming months which will not serve the interests of the Americans who may witness an increasing resistance with the attempts to reach an agreement that keep permanent US ministry bases in Iraq.

An event and a Lebanese Trend

Despite the US decision to prolong the Lebanese crisis and the continuity of the US promises to attack Iran and Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, various Lebanese circles believe that the possibility of achieving a political compromise is not close while the promised US war do not seem possible. The initiative that the Americans promised their allies of, cover the state of failure, which will increase in any new adventure, even if Gaza’s scenario returns.
The axes of the Lebanese political scene are the following:
- 1. The educational sector will carry out today a general strike, which will open the way for other movements by syndicates to demand improving the standard f living and stopping the economic collapse in the country.
- 2. The appearance of signs, which say the loyalists will withdraw their threats, which preceded the summit concerning expanding the government but this does not mean that they are waiting for the house speaker’s initiative or the return of Amer Musa.
- 3. Political and military circles follow up the Israeli military exercises, which will take place near the Lebanese borders, which Israel may use in a way that surpasses Ehud Barak’s threats against Lebanon and its resistance. Most of the analysts think that Israel is unable to launch the war.
- 4. Leader of the army Michel Suleiman said to as-Safir paper that he intends to leave his position next August after the legal end of his term.
- 5. Al-Akhbar paper said al-Qaeda is existent in Lebanon and accommodate its networks in away that corresponds to the political circumstances.
- 6. The bloc of Hezbollah called for releasing the four officers because the UN described them as political detainees and after the international committee said there are no evidences that support their permanent imprisonment.
- 7. The reactions to the Saudi stands against the Lebanese opposition continued and many loyal sides moved to refute the opposition and hail the Saudi support for Lebanon.

Arab and International Press

The Emarati paper al-Khalij said the Israeli occupation never abstain from preparing the atmospheres to deport Palestinians and replace them with new settlers.
Al-Bayan said in its editorial it seems that Bush’s administration, which started its term with hot wars, will conclude it with cold wars.
David Edwards said in an article that the recent violence in the Tibet was a revolution against an occupation.
Leonid Alexandorvich said in an article that Russia finds itself now in the position of power that allows it to dictate its conditions.
Al-Riyadh said that despite the short time the US administration works to convince Israel to accept peace.

Satellite Stations’ Interviews

The ANB
Program: Politics
Former head of the Phangalists party Kareem Bakradouni said If the Arabs do not solve Lebanon’s crisis, they won’t be able to solve any other crisis. Satellite Stations’ Interviews

The Syrian Satellite Station said the Israeli occupation forces assassinate the Palestinians in Beit Hanoun.

Lebanese Press

As-Safir said that General Michel Suleiman informed the military council that he intends to go to his house and leave his position next August and that he is sick of the gravitation that surrounds his nomination for presidency.
Al-Akhbar said that Al-Qaeda is existent in Lebanon and that there are tens of small networks in the country, which wait for orders to carry out specific missions.
Ad-Diyar said the country entered a new stage after the Arab summit.

Television Stations News in Lebanon

Al-Manar said the political crisis is stagnant but the economic crisis is soaring.
The NTV said Arab circles focus on small summits that aim at targeting Damascus’s leadership of the Arab summit.
The OTV said the Lebanese crisis is nominated for continuous stagnation.
The LBC said Lebanese circles follow up the economic crisis and the reactions to the Arab summit.
The Future said the problem between the international forces and Hezbollah and finding the weapons were about to become a dramatic development.

Television Stations’ Interviews in Lebanon

Editor-in-chief of Al-Diyar Charles Ayyoub said the internal political conflict is not related to Hezbollah weapons.
Member of the political office in the Phangalists party Joseph Abi Khalil said the country wants a savior not a dictator.

Tendencies is a daily political watch newsletter about the Near East, issued by New Orient News agency in Beirut, Lebanon. It is available on Voltairenet.org in Arabic, English, French, German, and Spanish languages. Also worth a read is Indicators, the daily Near East economic watch newsletter, available in Arabic, English and Spanish.