In the context of the extended 5+1 talks, Thierry Meyssan shares his thoughts about the issues at stake: behind the false accusation of developing a nuclear bomb, Washington had hoped to curb the influence of the Iranian revolution. However, in light of its military defeats since 2006, it would now be amenable to maintaining the status quo in the balance of power. Its aim is to split the Arab world between pro-Saudi and pro-Iranians based on the assurance that neither would encroach into the other’s sphere of influence. Despite appearances, the failure of the 5+1 talks in Vienna does not imply that the separate negotiations between Washington and Tehran met a similar fate, as suggested by John Kerry. However, it is not in the interest of either party to divulge what they have agreed to. Hence, one should keep an eye on the conflicts unfolding in the region to decipher the tenor of their agreement.
All political debate in the Gulf and the Levant hinged on the possible signing, on November 24, of an agreement between the five permanent members of the Security Council, Germany and Iran. Since the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to the presidency in 2005, the United States, the United Kingdom and France have tried to prevent the Islamic Republic from exporting its revolution thus upsetting the international disorder. Knowing that Iranian scientists, among other things, are furthering their research into a new kind of civil nuclear power in order to liberate the third world from "Western" domination, they accuse Iran without any evidence of trying to develop atomic weapons. The sanctions slapped on Iran have seriously affected its economy, but also the German economy. China and Russia serve as moderators for the debate.
In May 2013, bilateral negotiations began secretly in Oman between Washington and Tehran. Following which, the candidacy for the presidential election of Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, was banned so that Sheikh Hassan Rohani could be elected.
Sheikh Hassan Rohani was Israel’s first contact at the time of the Iran-Contra scandal.
Immediately after the proscription of Mashaei’s candidacy and without even waiting for Sheikh Hassan Rohani to be elected, Washington showed its goodwill and the 5+1 negotiations progressed positively. Soon thereafter, the Iranian delegation accepted the idea to opening its nuclear research centers to "Western" experts.
Sheikh Rohani started negotiating outside the Group 5 + 1, directly with Washington, the sale of Iranian gas to the European Union so that it can dispense with Russian gas while, at the same time, closing the gas spigot to China. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, he met his Austrian counterpart and developed a financial plan for connecting Iranian gas fields to the Nabucco pipeline. In the face of Moscow’s reaction, which has denounced the secret Iranian-US bilateral negotiations, he gave an interview to Russian channel 1 giving his word that his country has no intention of excluding Russia from the European gas market.
However, the US dragged out the 5+1 talks and simultaneously started discussing with the Saudi factions.
In October, the Leader of the Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, published a list of 11 points not open for negotiation. It is out of the question for Iran to stop its civil nuclear research, or to abandon uranium enrichment for civil purposes regardless of the possible compensations. In other words, Iran is ready to suspend its expansion in military terms but not at the civil level.
The Guide has already frustrated the plan to divert his country’s gas, but he must make concessions. Not only in order to obtain the lifting of the international sanctions that are severely harming his country, but mainly because the United States is poised to destabilize Iran if the plan falls through. More than 80 Western TV channels in Farsi are ready to assail the country, while the terrorist organization, the People’s Mojahedin of Iran, are lining up their suicide bombers.
One week before the November deadline, it seemed that Washington would be inclined to simply "freeze" the situation in the region and no longer seek to shift the balance of forces. The Arab world would be divided between Iran and Saudi Arabia, each of these states being the respective leaders of the Shiites and the Sunnis.
The Obama administration would resolve the succession of King Abdullah by guaranteeing to each Saud clan the hereditary transmission of its current privileges. By the same token, it would accept to see Iran maintain its influence on the condition that it renounces extend by arms.
Already, as a sign of goodwill, the Houthis (Shiite) agreed to form a government of national unity in Yemen with Sunni parties. Above all, after taking the capital, they halted their advance, leaving Aden in the hands of their rivals. By doing so, they have surrendered the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb and their control over the Red Sea.
If the Iranian-US agreement were officially endorsed and rubber stamped by the 5+1, all regional factions would gain some breathing space after years of turmoil. Yet no fundamental problem would be solved. The Sunnis would still have to the Wahhabis as Muslims, while the Shi’ite would have to accept the authority of Iran when Tehran would appear to be putting aside the ideals of Imam Khomeini. There would be no winning or losing side, although some players will be defeated within their own camp. Including Turkey which would lose its authority among the Sunni, thus seeing itself punished for its doggedness against Syria.
For the United States, the freezing of the Arab world would allow it to direct its military power against Russia and China.